The global landscape is shifting in surprising ways, and here's where it gets particularly provocative: a recent international survey reveals that, despite Donald Trump's 'Make America Great Again' campaign slogan, it is actually China—rather than the United States—that is gaining prominence on the world stage. This revelation might challenge some traditional beliefs about American dominance and influence. But why is this happening, and what does it mean for the future of global power?
One year after Trump’s return to the Oval Office, a comprehensive survey spanning 13 countries worldwide suggests that many nations view his 'America First' approach as inadvertently boosting China's global stature. The survey, conducted by the influential European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), not only indicates a decline in how the US is perceived by its traditional adversaries but also uncovers that allies and even some potential partners are growing more distant.
The findings show that most Europeans no longer see the US as a trustworthy or reliable partner. Instead, many are leaning towards increasing their military readiness, preparing for a future where their relationships with superpowers could shift significantly. To add fuel to the fire, Russia now perceives the European Union more as a threat than the US, while Ukrainians increasingly look to Brussels for support rather than Washington.
The survey involved nearly 26,000 respondents from diverse regions, including Europe, North America, Asia, and South America. These participants expressed widespread expectations that China's influence will continue to grow over the coming decade. Specifically, an overwhelming 83% in South Africa, 72% in Brazil, and 63% in Turkey expect China to expand its reach. In the US, 54% share this view, and similar sentiments are recorded across European Union countries—more than half anticipate China will soon dominate in areas like electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors.
Interestingly, despite this optimism about China's rise, concerns about China’s role remain relatively low. Only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities see China as a rival or threat. Conversely, countries like South Africa, India, and Brazil view China increasingly as an ally or a necessary partner—majorities in these nations regard China as vital to their interests, with 85%, 86%, and 73% respectively holding this belief.
In contrast, the perception of American influence appears to be waning, especially outside of Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey. Even within the United States, most respondents do not believe that America’s global influence will continue to grow. This shift reflects a broader change in how the world perceives the credibility and strength of American leadership.
Moreover, views of the US as an ally among Europeans have markedly declined. Today, only 16% of Europeans see the US as a dependable partner, with a notable 20% now viewing it as an adversary or rival—a stark contrast to previous years. Similar trends are evident globally, with feelings about America drifting downward.
The survey also sheds light on how perceptions of Donald Trump himself have shifted. Less than a year ago, many believed his re-election would benefit their countries and global stability, but now confidence has dropped significantly. Fewer nations think that Trump's leadership is advantageous for their citizens or contributes to peace worldwide.
An additional layer of complexity emerges when examining perspectives in Russia, especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. As the war approaches its fifth year, more Russians now see Europe as an adversary—rising from 41% last year to 51% today—while viewing the US as less hostile than before. Conversely, Ukrainians increasingly regard Europe as an ally rather than the US, further indicating a reorientation of regional alliances.
China’s perception of its international role presents a nuanced picture. Despite Trump’s anti-EU rhetoric, a majority of Chinese respondents (59%) regard the EU as a major power, with nearly half seeing the bloc more as an ally than a threat. Interestingly, this view is shared by about 40% of Americans, suggesting some common ground despite formal political disputes.
However, among Europeans, confidence in the EU’s capacity to stand on equal footing with the US or China has waned. Almost half now believe the EU cannot match these powers, and concerns about future stability, potential conflicts, and Russian aggression are prevalent—with over half supporting increased military spending.
Experts from the ECFR, including Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and Timothy Garton Ash, interpret these results as evidence that Trump’s assertive policies—such as his interventions in Venezuela and territorial claims in Greenland—are reinforcing a global reality where power is perceived as something to be feared rather than loved. This environment risks marginalizing Europe, which could end up either sidelined or ignored altogether.
The authors advocate for European leaders to recognize the magnitude of these changes and to adopt a bold and pragmatic approach. They suggest that Europe should not just aim to navigate the multipolar world but strive to position itself as a significant pole within it—an endeavor that requires both realism and daring. The questions remain: Are we truly aware of how deeply the old global order is unraveling? And will Europe rise to the challenge or fade into obscurity? Your thoughts and opinions on this shifting balance of power are more relevant than ever—share your perspective below.
