The world is on the brink of a potential nuclear arms race as the US and Russia's landmark nuclear weapons treaty, New START, is set to expire on Thursday. This treaty, signed in 2010, was a crucial step in preventing a catastrophic nuclear war, capping the number of strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each party and ensuring transparency through data sharing and inspections. However, with the treaty's expiration, the arms control cooperation that helped end the Cold War is at risk.
The original START treaty, signed in 1991 by the US and the Soviet Union, had set a limit of 6,000 nuclear warheads for each side. New START, a successor to this treaty, was a significant achievement in reducing nuclear arsenals. Despite a temporary suspension, both nations were believed to be adhering to the agreement, which prevented the uncontrolled buildup of nuclear weapons and provided transparency measures to avoid misunderstandings.
The expiration of New START follows a troubling pattern. Other long-standing arms control treaties have already been abandoned, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty. These treaties played vital roles in reducing nuclear and conventional weapons in Europe and promoting mutual surveillance.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that both the US and Russia are currently modernizing their nuclear forces and expanding their strategic capabilities. Russia's concerns about penetrating US air defenses and the US's plans to build a 'Golden Dome' defense system have led to the development of new weapons like the Poseidon and Burevestnik, which can overcome air defenses. Additionally, the US, Russia, and China are all developing long-range hypersonic missiles, making it even more challenging to reach a new arms control agreement.
The arms race is not just about the US and Russia; it's a global concern. Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow, warns that the expiration of New START is concerning due to the desire of both sides to expand their strategic capabilities. The increasing salience of nuclear weapons, with more countries seeking them as deterrents, further complicates matters. The lack of urgency from both the US and Russia to sign a new treaty is also troubling, as evidenced by the lack of progress during President Putin and President Trump's meeting in Alaska.
The world is at a critical juncture, with the potential for a new arms race that could have devastating consequences. As Pope Leo urged, the current situation demands efforts to prevent a new arms race, and the international community must act to ensure global security and stability.
